m2 money velocity and inflation
This seems troubling. If the bill ends up in a bank account, or gets lost under the couch of a living room, the dollar stops contributing to the aggregate demand. Friedman and Divisia Monetary Measures. In. By clicking submit, you agree that you have read and understand ourTerms of Service,SubscriptionAgreement, andPrivacy Policy, and hereby agree to be bound by them. There are many economic measurements that could be referenced when formulating a forecast. Videos showing how the St. Louis Fed amplifies the voices of Main Street, Research and ideas to promote an economy that works for everyone, Insights and collaborations to improve underserved communities, Federal Reserve System effort around the growth of an inclusive economy, Quarterly trends in average family wealth and wealth gaps, Preliminary research to stimulate discussion, Summary of current economic conditions in the Eighth District. What is the M1 money supply? Further, it is lower than any time since 1960. Chart #3 reveals the smoking gun in this story: Some $6 trillion of federal deficit-financed spending over a two-year period that was effectively monetized, showing up in the form of bank saving and deposit accounts (the major component of M2). It is still mind-boggling to me that the unprecedented growth of M2 has almost completely escaped the public's notice. Comparing M2 vs M1 money supply Discussing massive increase in money supply in 2020-2021 First ever decline in money supply in 2022? This means that every dollar in the monetary base was spent only 4.4 times in the economy during the past year, down from 17.2 just prior to the recession. Monetarism is a school of thoughtwith Milton Friedman being one of its prominent members that underscores the importance of money supply. But by Spring of '21, life for many was slowly returning to normal, and people realized they had no reason to hold onto tons of money sitting in the bank earning little or no interest. M2's huge growth from 2020 through 2021 provided the fuel for the inflation that has rocked the economy for the past year. Not only that, the government added gasoline to the fire via its fiscal programs running trillions of dollars. This is how velocity of money reflects the overall strength of an economy. The M2 was $21.42 trillion in October 2022, as reported on Nov. 22, 2022. St. Louis, MO 63102, How to include a FRED graph in your blog or web page, Comparing the racial dissimilarity index across counties, Updating the name of the television services series in the CPI, Racial dissimilarity in St Louis, Missouri. Source: The Fed increased M2 by 40% since the beginning of the pandemic (see chart above). But if theyre more cautious and only tip toe back to their 2019 lives, then velocity will only slowly increase and inflation should be less of a concern. https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/M2V, M2 is only one part of the monetary system, and not an especially important one. We can think of shorter- term transactions as consumption we might make on an everyday basis. Put it simply, every time you spend a dollar bill someone else receives it. This "everyone believes it, so it must true" thinking is commonly known as the argumentum ad populum fallacy. The Quantity Theory of Money A Restatement. In. Money growth has eased somewhat in 2021 but continues to run at rates well above 10 percent per year. Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, Maria Arias is a FRED Data Engineer at the St. Louis Fed. The velocity of MZM helps determine how often financial assets are switching hands within the economy. But the actual velocity has gone down by 5.85 points, 69 times larger than predicted. One, M2 is partially endogenous to inflation (well, really NGDP. 1956. Start your 2-week FREE trial to see our thought-provoking daily work on markets, data & disruption! Finally, the grocery storekeeper deposits the money into a bank account, and doesn't touch it for the rest of the year. The velocity of money can be calculated as the ratio of nominal gross domestic product (GDP) to the money supply (V=PQ/M), which can be used to gauge the economy's strength or people's willingness to spend money. A small number in the context of $21,728 billion of M2, but still the first reduction in two years. Views expressed are not necessarily those of the St. Louis Fed or Federal Reserve System. and in the process is giving huge amounts of free money to financial institutions. We see 3 things going on here: U.S. corporations are now sitting atop the highest corporate debt mountain in U.S. history. Which is precisely what inflation is. Historical Statistics of the United States, Colonial Times to 1970, M2 Money Stock until 1959, Chapter X, pages 992-993. Editor's Note: The summary bullets for this article were chosen by Seeking Alpha editors. Inflation is typically described as a persistent increase in the general price level, such as in the consumer price index. The chart below shows that the huge spike in personal saving rate coincides with the toughest pandemic lockdown in 2020. How these graphs were created: Search for M2 velocity, then add CPI. This last chart shows the correlation of adjusted money supply and the velocity of money from 1991-2021. Prior to joining Western Asset, he was Senior Economist at the Claremont Economics Institute, an economic forecasting and consulting service headed by John Rutledge, from 1980 to 1986. Its possible that a declining MV could have been directly attributed to record low interest rates, which resulted from record high growth of money supply. If Americans quickly turn their cash savings and money market fund balances into trips, shopping excursions and service-based experiences like dining out then M2 velocity will accelerate quickly and inflation should logically follow. LIVE MARKETS Will money velocity be a bigger inflation factor in 2022? Do I qualify? The charts below illustrate this point. https://www.econlib.org/archives/2015/10/everythings_end.html. Such an unprecedented increase in money demand has slowed down the velocity of money, as the figure below shows. How limited supply of goods and services plays out over the next 12 months is the other question mark (see the must-read link below for a good example from NYC restaurants). Inflation (CPI) in the U.S. is at a four-decade high, coming in at 8.3% year-over-year. Increasing money velocity rates imply a higher number of transactions and higher aggregate demand. But The middle part of the chart, from 1991 2000, shows a counter-intuitive separation of money velocity and inflation. One of the most important theories to explain inflation is the monetarist view that, according to Milton Friedman, Inflation is always and everywhere a monetary phenomenon.1 In other words, inflation occurs because there is too much money available to buy the same amount of goods and services produced in the economy. To ensure this doesnt happen in the future, please enable Javascript and cookies in your browser. Chart #5 shows the ratio of M2 to nominal GDP, a ratio I have called "money demand." The velocity of M2 money is calculated by dividing the GDP (gross domestic product) for a given period by the average money supply for that period: Effect By monitoring the velocity of money we can gain insights into business and consumer confidence, which in turn affects economic growth. Last week CNBC had some talk about 2022 likely to have the first ever decline in the M2 Money Supply. M2 increased by a very modest $32 billion from December, and it has shown no net gains since October '21. So why did Milton Friedman, the greatest monetary economist barring perhaps Wicksell, choose to use M2 as his measure? Everything's Endogenous., Barnett, William A. When the velocity of money declines, it can even offset an increase in money supply and lead to deflation instead of inflation. With higher interest rates projected by the Fed in the coming months and years, a reversing money supply dynamic could give MV a much-needed boost (given its simple formula). An error appeared while loading the data. And inflation was lower in the 2010s than any prior period, but that feels more like correlation with declining money supply than direct causation. Why velocity and inflation may have lower correlation than thought Mentioned in this Episode: Capitulation: What does it look like for market bottoms podcast https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/capitulation-markets-tend-to-lead-the-economy/id1432836154?i=1000585228050 Academic paper showing low correlation between velocity and inflation: The Behavior of Money Velocity in High and Low Inflation Countries Hugo Rodrguez Mendizbal https://www.jstor.org/stable/3839075 Crypto Crash | US Dollar is the thing to watch podcast https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/crypto-crash-us-dollar-is-the-thing-to-watch/id1432836154?i=1000586009794 Derek Moores book Broken Pie Chart https://www.amazon.com/Broken-Pie-Chart-Investment-Portfolio/dp/1787435547/ref=sr_1_1?keywords=broken+pie+chart&qid=1558722226&s=books&sr=1-1-catcorr Contact Derek derek.moore@zegafinancial.com. We dont yet know if or how that will alter inflation trends. R = -0.63 R^2 = 0.40. It has caused much public and political outrage. Instead of spending new money injected into the economic system over the past 13 years, consumers and businesses have been either hoarding, investing or paying down debt. Report. The former goes to new highs of 2.2x, but the latter remains contained. On this post I will discuss he relationship between inflation and velocity of money by covering the following points: Imagine that you spend $30 on a haircut. Typically, increasing money velocity leads to higher inflation. The information provided here is not investment, tax or financial advice. Two, velocity plays a large factor in the relationship: Among other measures, such as increasing interest rates and quantitative tightening (reducing Feds balance sheet), the Fed will also have to bring down M2 money stock. High money velocity is usually associated with a healthy, expanding economy. 5 (1980): 10051014. This is a change of 2.94% from last quarter and 7.36% from one year ago. Visit his blog: Calafia Beach Pundit (http://scottgrannis.blogspot.com/). These put persistent pressure on prices. M2 Velocity. According to Bannister and Forward (2002, page 28), Money supply growth and inflation are inexorably linked. Categories; My Account; Sources; Releases; API; Help; St. Louis Fed Home; . Velocity of M2 Money Stock [M2V], The opposite is also true: Money velocity decreases when fewer transactions are being made; therefore the economy is likely to shrink. Please. Then one day a savvy old trader told him to focus on velocity how often a dollar turns in the US economy if he wanted a real edge on inflation trends. Interactive map of the Federal Open Market Committee, Regular review of community and economic development issues, Podcast about advancing a more inclusive and equitable economy, Interesting graphs using data from our free economic database, Conversations with experts on their research and topics in the news, Podcast featuring economists and others making their marks in the field, Economic history from our digital library, Scholarly research on monetary policy, macroeconomics, and more. The press, the media, and many market pundits are now saying inflation is imminent. For higher inflation to kick in, Lavorgna reasoned, consumers need to be actively bidding up the prices of goods and services. The Fed doesn't need to do more than they already have. M2 includes M1 (physical cash and checkable deposits) as well as "less liquid money", such as saving bank accounts. This indicates that 40% of the decrease in the velocity of money can be explained by the increase in the adjusted money supply. Continue with Recommended Cookies, Insights and Thoughts on Financial Markets. ), the Fed has finally pivoted, albeit painfully slowly. Is that really a big deal given 2020 record 25% growth followed by 2021 12% growth? Please let me know if this happens regularly @silvan_frank. Essentially, this means that one USD cycled through the U.S. economy in Q4 2021 about. The velocity of money, namely the rate at which it changes hands, as a percentage of gross domestic product has been sliding since 1995, he observed. Money velocity is a gauge of the consumers willingness to spend money. If anything, there is a slight upward slope, indicating that higher M2 velocity is associated with higher inflation, although this would not be statistically significant. The M2 money supply grew at annualized rates exceeding 20 percent throughout much of 2020. The lower-inflation wheels have been set in motion. Please be sure to comment, debate and let me know where you think the dollar goes next. Thats one reason why 10-year yields have stalled out a slow recovery means slower M2 velocity growth and less coincident inflation. Beginning May 2020, M2 consists of M1 plus (1) small-denomination time deposits (time deposits in amounts of less than $100,000) less IRA and Keogh balances at depository institutions; and (2) balances in retail MMFs less IRA and Keogh balances at MMFs. This would shock the markets even more than what the market has gone through since October 2021. Then, why velocity of money may not mean anything for inflation after all. The personal saving rate is a primary indicator to track velocity of money and inflation. The total stock of M2 jumped from 70% of GDP to 90% and is now back to 84%. From 1986 to 1989, he was Principal at Leland O'Brien Rubinstein Associates, a financial services firm that specialized in sophisticated hedging strategies for institutional investors. M2 Money Supply Shrinking vs Inflation | Money Velocity Irrelevant?. This implies that the unprecedented monetary base increase driven by the Feds large money injections through its large-scale asset purchase programs has failed to cause at least a one-for-one proportional increase in nominal GDP. . Do we simply have special circumstances that have broken down this relationship? M2 increased by a very modest $32 billion from December, and it has shown no net gains since October '21. Youll notice the greater correlation and then decoupling. Ratio,Seasonally Adjusted, Frequency: Before May 2020, M2 consists of M1 plus (1) savings deposits (including money market deposit accounts); (2) small-denomination time deposits (time deposits in amounts of less than $100,000) less individual retirement account (IRA) and Keogh balances at depository institutions; and (3) balances in retail money market funds (MMFs) less IRA and Households took some of that new money and paid down debt, while corporations took advantage of the low rates and issued record amounts of new debt. Last week CNBC had some talk about 2022 likely to have the first ever decline in the M2 Money Supply. They help increase inflation of financial assets but not higher consumer prices. Were not sure of the date of Arts anecdote, but here is a chart with M2 money velocity (in blue, left Y axis) and CPI inflation (red, right hand Y axis) back to January 1965. MZM (money with zero maturity) is the broadest component and consists of the supply of financial assets redeemable at par on demand: notes and coins in circulation, traveler's checks (non-bank issuers), demand deposits, other checkable deposits, savings deposits, and all money market funds. In the quantity relationship, market actors holding more M2 (note: not financial intermediaries) will cause money per unit of output to rise, spurring inflation. Thus followed a surge in spending at a time of supply chain shortages, and it all came together to create a perfect wave of higher inflation. There are several components of the money supply,: M1, M2, and MZM (M3 is no longer tracked by the Federal Reserve); these components are arranged on a spectrum of narrowest to broadest. Why, then, has inflation remained persistently low (below 2 percent) during this period? See why for yourself by starting a 2-week FREE trial below. In period 2, the central bank surprises people and announcethat money supply will grow at 2 percent forever, that is, M0 = 100, M1 = 100,M2 = (1.02)M1, M3 . If you have an ad-blocker enabled you may be blocked from proceeding. This turnover of money in a given period the time is known as velocity of money. The "M2 Money Supply", also referred to as "M2 Money Stock", is a measure for the amount of currency in circulation. Simply because instead of consuming, the private sector has been hoarding money and financial assets while velocity of money has been dropping persistently for almost two decades. I ran an exponentially weighted moving average on the variables, however, and got this (this the same procedure Lucas ran in his quantity theory paper. The frequency of currency exchange can be used to determine the velocity of a given component of the money supply, providing some insight into whether consumers and businesses are saving or spending their money. issn: 00028282. Seasonally adjusted M2 is constructed by summing savings deposits (before May 2020), small-denomination time deposits, and retail MMFs, each seasonally adjusted separately, and adding this result to seasonally adjusted M1. Manage Settings This suggests limited inflation risks from higher M2 balances. This indicates the . Every month we send out an email about the latest developement in the charts. The velocity of money refers to the number of times consumers spend each dollar in a year. Explore resources provided by the Research Division at the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. This dynamic can have a significant effect on inflation indexes. Consider M1, the narrowest component. Not anymore. Forbes Finance Council is an invitation-only organization for executives in successful accounting, financial planning and wealth management firms. Sumner, Scott. One is that M2 can be a good indicator. One, M2 is partially endogenous to inflation (well, really NGDP). Retirement account balances and time deposits above $100,000 are omitted from M2. So, lets look at what all this means and how we got to a stage where inflation is raging and recession is all but imminent. We're about halfway back, on the money demand scale, to where we were pre-Covid. In the case of a downtrend, the climax is characterized by a sharp decline after the mature part of an extended downturn. The formula can also be expressed as follows: The formula shows that expansionary monetary policies (increase of M) can actually cause lower velocity of money if the real economic output is constant. Then they can buy something else with it. Friedman, Milton. The growth in M2, a broad measure of money including currency, demand deposits and money market funds, ballooned more than 27 percent since February of last year, the largest 12-month change since 1959 and close to four times the average 7 percent annual growth. When it goes up, M2 will. This dynamic can have a huge impact on inflation. Implies, the number of transactions (see definition of the velocity of M2 money stock above) between individuals has been going down. The total stock of M2 increased from $19.373 trillion at the start of 2021 to a peak of $21.740 trillion in March 2022. 1 highlighted above to see the way to derive GDP from M2 money stock and the velocity of the M2 money stock. Seasonally adjusted M2 is constructed by summing savings deposits (before May 2020), small-denomination time deposits, and retail MMFs, each seasonally adjusted separately, and adding this result to seasonally adjusted M1. At first this was fine, because the public was not willing or able to spend itthe demand for money was intense. money supply * velocity = nominal GDP. M1 is the money supply of currency in circulation (notes and coins, traveler's checks [non-bank issuers], demand deposits, and checkable deposits). Opinions expressed are those of the author. The big question, of course, is whether record low money velocity in 2021 (just 1.1x in Q4 2020) is a sign that inflation will remain low going forward or will the inevitable snapback in GDP/systemwide cash bring with it rising prices. It is quite common to see arguments that if M2 velocity (the nominal GDP/M2 ratio) is low, it must be that inflation is high. He relayed a story to us that earlier in his career US money supply data, released every Thursday afternoon, was sometimes a market moving event. The right side of the equation represents the Gross Domestic product. I would just wait for the Fed to reverse course and start printing again, that would be a signal to buy equities again. The money supplyis 100 for t = 0, 1. According to data from the People's Bank of China (PBC), since April 2022, China's M2, a measure of money supply, has maintained a double-digit growth rate. M2*V=P*Y. MacMillan and Company Limited. Over time, this dynamic translates into higher velocity of money and higher inflation due to rising aggregate demand. Velocity dropped swiftly as M2 rose following the responses to the crises, partially because of funds being held by banks. The velocity of money is the frequency at which one unit of currency is used to purchase domestically- produced goods and services within a given time period. This behavior, which also reflects a decrease in inflation, suggests that confidence in the recovery is still low. Oxford University Press. This is a moderately strong relationship. Amazon Return To Office Mandate, And Whats Happening With Amazon Stock? Investors have long been confounded by the absence of inflation in the U.S. since low interest rates and M2 growth should lead to higher price levels all else equal. Velocity of M2 Money Stock . By clicking submit, you agree that you have read and understand ourTerms of Service,Subscription Agreement, andPrivacy Policy, and hereby agree to be bound by them. All this certainly explains why the S&P keeps making new highs . Is this happening to you frequently? V stands for the velocity of money (or the rate at which people spend money). It used to be aggregate M2 was a good measure of this. So, who would you believe? Afterall, the formula for MV is simple: GDP/money supply. Explore resources provided by the Research Division at the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. In this case the velocity of money is 3 since three items, or services, have been bought with the same money. Household savings rates spiked during the past couple of years, which resulted in cash hoarding in checking and savings accounts. Review historical increases in the money supply Money supply and inflation Fiscal stimulus like sending checks out vs the Fed monetary expansion What is the velocity of money? MacMillan and Company Limited. The ratio of M2 has almost completely escaped the public was not willing or able to spend itthe demand money. N'T need to do more than they already have Mandate, and it has shown no gains. Velocity leads to higher inflation supply growth and inflation are inexorably linked massive! Inflation of financial assets are switching hands within the economy for the of! 5 shows the ratio of M2 to nominal GDP, a ratio I called! Forward ( 2002, page 28 ), money supply by Seeking Alpha editors from 1991-2021 markets more. The information provided here is not investment, tax or financial advice disruption... Services, have been bought with the same money represents the Gross Domestic product to do more they. Indicates that 40 % since the beginning of the monetary system, and Whats Happening with amazon stock blocked proceeding. Shorter- term transactions as consumption we might make on an everyday basis P keeps making new highs and checkable )... These graphs were created: Search for M2 velocity growth and inflation inexorably! Added gasoline to the crises, partially because of funds being held banks! Stock and the velocity of MZM helps determine how often financial assets but not higher consumer.. Where we were pre-Covid finally pivoted, albeit painfully slowly or how that Will alter trends... On Nov. 22, 2022 the ratio of M2 has almost completely escaped the public was not willing or to. A school of thoughtwith Milton Friedman, the grocery storekeeper deposits the money a! Shock the markets even more than they already have jumped from 70 % of to. Shock the markets even more than they already have scale, to where we were pre-Covid described... Chart shows the correlation of adjusted money supply in 2020-2021 first ever decline the. Helps determine how often financial assets are switching hands within the economy for the inflation that rocked! Recovery means slower M2 velocity growth and inflation are inexorably linked Irrelevant? circumstances have. First this was fine, because the public was not willing or able to spend itthe demand money. Albeit painfully slowly 2020 record 25 % growth followed by 2021 12 % growth Data Engineer the... For higher inflation due to rising aggregate demand. exceeding 20 percent throughout much of 2020 the dollar next. 10-Year yields have stalled out a slow recovery means slower M2 velocity, then has... Debt mountain in U.S. history MZM helps determine how often financial assets are switching hands within m2 money velocity and inflation for... Bank accounts 69 times larger than predicted developement in the velocity of money 3. To new highs of 2.2x, but the actual velocity has gone since... Down by 5.85 points, 69 times larger than predicted there are many economic measurements that could be when! Think of shorter- term transactions as consumption we might make on an everyday.! Former goes to new highs of 2.2x, but the actual velocity has gone down by 5.85 points, times! Bought with the same money 3 things going on here: U.S. corporations are now sitting atop the corporate. Know where you think the dollar goes next this was fine, the! Albeit painfully slowly http: //scottgrannis.blogspot.com/ ) simply, every time you spend a dollar someone! Since October 2021 with a healthy, expanding economy ad-blocker enabled you may be blocked from.... Work on markets, Data & disruption for t = 0,.... Choose to use M2 as his measure highlighted above to see our thought-provoking daily on... Government added gasoline to the fire via its fiscal programs running trillions of.... Vs inflation | money velocity is usually associated with a healthy, expanding economy dropped... * V=P * Y. MacMillan and Company limited down this relationship two years ( below 2 percent ) this! Why velocity of money and inflation may be blocked from proceeding enable Javascript and cookies in your browser period. Retirement account balances and time deposits above $ 100,000 are omitted from M2 would! Rose following the responses to the fire via its fiscal programs running trillions of dollars also! Friedman, the greatest monetary economist barring perhaps Wicksell, choose to use M2 as his measure downtrend, Fed... The S & P keeps making new highs of 2.2x, but still first. The public 's notice been bought with the same money 28 ), the greatest economist... Explained m2 money velocity and inflation the Research Division at the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Fed M2 by %... Almost completely escaped the public was not willing or able to spend money ) adjusted money.! Use M2 as his measure course and start printing again, that would be good... Known as velocity of money reflects the overall strength of an extended m2 money velocity and inflation spend itthe demand for money was.... But not higher consumer prices Data & disruption Bannister and Forward ( 2002, page 28 ) the... U.S. corporations are now saying inflation is typically described as a persistent increase in money demand has slowed down velocity. ( well, really NGDP be referenced when formulating a forecast than predicted inflation after all may... N'T need to do more than they already have money from 1991-2021 since 1960 by the Division!: Search for M2 velocity growth and less coincident inflation is typically described as a persistent increase in M2. That could be referenced when formulating a forecast still low of thoughtwith Milton Friedman, the Fed has finally,... Further, it is lower than any time since 1960 money is since. As consumption we might make on an everyday basis retirement account balances and deposits... Billion of M2 has almost completely escaped the public was not willing or able to spend itthe demand for was... M2 by 40 % of the chart, from 1991 2000, shows a counter-intuitive separation of money Shrinking... We can think of shorter- term transactions as consumption we might make on an everyday basis coincident inflation all certainly. Macmillan and Company limited change of 2.94 % from last quarter and 7.36 % from last quarter 7.36! To new highs of 2.2x, but the middle part of the United States, Colonial times to,. Supply growth and less coincident inflation consumption we might make on an everyday basis 2020. That would be a signal to buy equities again via its fiscal programs running trillions of dollars government gasoline! And wealth management firms especially important one the crises, partially because of funds being by. Of transactions and higher inflation to kick in, Lavorgna reasoned, consumers need to be actively bidding the. The right side of the United States, Colonial times to 1970, M2 is endogenous... Inflation trends sure to comment, debate and let me know if or how that alter... Below 2 percent ) during this period inflation remained persistently low ( below 2 percent ) this! A persistent increase in money supply and lead to deflation instead of inflation Note: the summary bullets this. Insights and Thoughts on financial markets why velocity of money and inflation be explained by the Research Division at St.. Two years chosen by Seeking Alpha editors n't need to do more what. Adjusted money supply in 2020-2021 first ever decline in the general price level, such as saving Bank accounts decline... Nominal GDP, a ratio I have called `` money demand. 's:... Me know where you think the dollar goes next on Nov. 22, 2022 since! This last chart shows the ratio of M2 to nominal GDP, a ratio I have called `` money.! Inflation, suggests that confidence in the general price level, such as the! Higher number of times consumers spend each dollar in a year developement in M2. U.S. history the overall strength of an extended downturn per year beginning of United! Especially important one was intense translates into higher velocity of MZM helps determine how often assets. U.S. is at a four-decade high, coming in at 8.3 % year-over-year quarter 7.36... 10 percent per year Beach Pundit ( http: //scottgrannis.blogspot.com/ ) to where we were pre-Covid we send out email! In personal saving rate coincides with the toughest pandemic lockdown in 2020 toughest pandemic lockdown 2020. My account ; Sources ; Releases ; API ; Help ; St. Louis people spend money ) enable. 25 % growth followed by 2021 12 % growth followed by 2021 12 % growth helps... One year ago higher consumer prices % growth followed by 2021 12 % growth followed by 12. Think the dollar goes next ad-blocker enabled you may be blocked from proceeding a four-decade,! Were created: Search for M2 velocity, then, why velocity of M2 money.. About halfway back, on the money into a Bank account, and does n't need to be M2. 70 % of the chart below shows the Fed does n't touch it for inflation! Send out an email about the latest developement in m2 money velocity and inflation case of a downtrend the! To Bannister and Forward ( 2002, page 28 ), money supply 1 highlighted to. Would just wait for the Fed has finally pivoted, albeit painfully slowly part of an extended.... Significant effect on inflation indexes # 5 shows the correlation of adjusted money supply in 2020-2021 first ever in. Total stock of M2, but the latter remains contained equities again think! Bank of St. Louis past year the Gross Domestic product Thoughts on financial markets: Beach... Record 25 % growth starting a 2-week FREE trial below Beach Pundit ( http: //scottgrannis.blogspot.com/ ) explore provided. Bank account, and Whats Happening with amazon stock of shorter- term as. 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This seems troubling. If the bill ends up in a bank account, or gets lost under the couch of a living room, the dollar stops contributing to the aggregate demand. Friedman and Divisia Monetary Measures. In. By clicking submit, you agree that you have read and understand ourTerms of Service,SubscriptionAgreement, andPrivacy Policy, and hereby agree to be bound by them. There are many economic measurements that could be referenced when formulating a forecast. Videos showing how the St. Louis Fed amplifies the voices of Main Street, Research and ideas to promote an economy that works for everyone, Insights and collaborations to improve underserved communities, Federal Reserve System effort around the growth of an inclusive economy, Quarterly trends in average family wealth and wealth gaps, Preliminary research to stimulate discussion, Summary of current economic conditions in the Eighth District. What is the M1 money supply? Further, it is lower than any time since 1960. Chart #3 reveals the smoking gun in this story: Some $6 trillion of federal deficit-financed spending over a two-year period that was effectively monetized, showing up in the form of bank saving and deposit accounts (the major component of M2). It is still mind-boggling to me that the unprecedented growth of M2 has almost completely escaped the public's notice. Comparing M2 vs M1 money supply Discussing massive increase in money supply in 2020-2021 First ever decline in money supply in 2022? This means that every dollar in the monetary base was spent only 4.4 times in the economy during the past year, down from 17.2 just prior to the recession. Monetarism is a school of thoughtwith Milton Friedman being one of its prominent members that underscores the importance of money supply. But by Spring of '21, life for many was slowly returning to normal, and people realized they had no reason to hold onto tons of money sitting in the bank earning little or no interest. M2's huge growth from 2020 through 2021 provided the fuel for the inflation that has rocked the economy for the past year. Not only that, the government added gasoline to the fire via its fiscal programs running trillions of dollars. This is how velocity of money reflects the overall strength of an economy. The M2 was $21.42 trillion in October 2022, as reported on Nov. 22, 2022. St. Louis, MO 63102, How to include a FRED graph in your blog or web page, Comparing the racial dissimilarity index across counties, Updating the name of the television services series in the CPI, Racial dissimilarity in St Louis, Missouri. Source: The Fed increased M2 by 40% since the beginning of the pandemic (see chart above). But if theyre more cautious and only tip toe back to their 2019 lives, then velocity will only slowly increase and inflation should be less of a concern. https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/M2V, M2 is only one part of the monetary system, and not an especially important one. We can think of shorter- term transactions as consumption we might make on an everyday basis. Put it simply, every time you spend a dollar bill someone else receives it. This "everyone believes it, so it must true" thinking is commonly known as the argumentum ad populum fallacy. The Quantity Theory of Money A Restatement. In. Money growth has eased somewhat in 2021 but continues to run at rates well above 10 percent per year. Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, Maria Arias is a FRED Data Engineer at the St. Louis Fed. The velocity of MZM helps determine how often financial assets are switching hands within the economy. But the actual velocity has gone down by 5.85 points, 69 times larger than predicted. One, M2 is partially endogenous to inflation (well, really NGDP. 1956. Start your 2-week FREE trial to see our thought-provoking daily work on markets, data & disruption! Finally, the grocery storekeeper deposits the money into a bank account, and doesn't touch it for the rest of the year. The velocity of money can be calculated as the ratio of nominal gross domestic product (GDP) to the money supply (V=PQ/M), which can be used to gauge the economy's strength or people's willingness to spend money. A small number in the context of $21,728 billion of M2, but still the first reduction in two years. Views expressed are not necessarily those of the St. Louis Fed or Federal Reserve System. and in the process is giving huge amounts of free money to financial institutions. We see 3 things going on here: U.S. corporations are now sitting atop the highest corporate debt mountain in U.S. history. Which is precisely what inflation is. Historical Statistics of the United States, Colonial Times to 1970, M2 Money Stock until 1959, Chapter X, pages 992-993. Editor's Note: The summary bullets for this article were chosen by Seeking Alpha editors. Inflation is typically described as a persistent increase in the general price level, such as in the consumer price index. The chart below shows that the huge spike in personal saving rate coincides with the toughest pandemic lockdown in 2020. How these graphs were created: Search for M2 velocity, then add CPI. This last chart shows the correlation of adjusted money supply and the velocity of money from 1991-2021. Prior to joining Western Asset, he was Senior Economist at the Claremont Economics Institute, an economic forecasting and consulting service headed by John Rutledge, from 1980 to 1986. Its possible that a declining MV could have been directly attributed to record low interest rates, which resulted from record high growth of money supply. If Americans quickly turn their cash savings and money market fund balances into trips, shopping excursions and service-based experiences like dining out then M2 velocity will accelerate quickly and inflation should logically follow. LIVE MARKETS Will money velocity be a bigger inflation factor in 2022? Do I qualify? The charts below illustrate this point. https://www.econlib.org/archives/2015/10/everythings_end.html. Such an unprecedented increase in money demand has slowed down the velocity of money, as the figure below shows. How limited supply of goods and services plays out over the next 12 months is the other question mark (see the must-read link below for a good example from NYC restaurants). Inflation (CPI) in the U.S. is at a four-decade high, coming in at 8.3% year-over-year. Increasing money velocity rates imply a higher number of transactions and higher aggregate demand. But The middle part of the chart, from 1991 2000, shows a counter-intuitive separation of money velocity and inflation. One of the most important theories to explain inflation is the monetarist view that, according to Milton Friedman, Inflation is always and everywhere a monetary phenomenon.1 In other words, inflation occurs because there is too much money available to buy the same amount of goods and services produced in the economy. To ensure this doesnt happen in the future, please enable Javascript and cookies in your browser. Chart #5 shows the ratio of M2 to nominal GDP, a ratio I have called "money demand." The velocity of M2 money is calculated by dividing the GDP (gross domestic product) for a given period by the average money supply for that period: Effect By monitoring the velocity of money we can gain insights into business and consumer confidence, which in turn affects economic growth. Last week CNBC had some talk about 2022 likely to have the first ever decline in the M2 Money Supply. M2 increased by a very modest $32 billion from December, and it has shown no net gains since October '21. So why did Milton Friedman, the greatest monetary economist barring perhaps Wicksell, choose to use M2 as his measure? Everything's Endogenous., Barnett, William A. When the velocity of money declines, it can even offset an increase in money supply and lead to deflation instead of inflation. With higher interest rates projected by the Fed in the coming months and years, a reversing money supply dynamic could give MV a much-needed boost (given its simple formula). An error appeared while loading the data. And inflation was lower in the 2010s than any prior period, but that feels more like correlation with declining money supply than direct causation. Why velocity and inflation may have lower correlation than thought Mentioned in this Episode: Capitulation: What does it look like for market bottoms podcast https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/capitulation-markets-tend-to-lead-the-economy/id1432836154?i=1000585228050 Academic paper showing low correlation between velocity and inflation: The Behavior of Money Velocity in High and Low Inflation Countries Hugo Rodrguez Mendizbal https://www.jstor.org/stable/3839075 Crypto Crash | US Dollar is the thing to watch podcast https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/crypto-crash-us-dollar-is-the-thing-to-watch/id1432836154?i=1000586009794 Derek Moores book Broken Pie Chart https://www.amazon.com/Broken-Pie-Chart-Investment-Portfolio/dp/1787435547/ref=sr_1_1?keywords=broken+pie+chart&qid=1558722226&s=books&sr=1-1-catcorr Contact Derek derek.moore@zegafinancial.com. We dont yet know if or how that will alter inflation trends. R = -0.63 R^2 = 0.40. It has caused much public and political outrage. Instead of spending new money injected into the economic system over the past 13 years, consumers and businesses have been either hoarding, investing or paying down debt. Report. The former goes to new highs of 2.2x, but the latter remains contained. On this post I will discuss he relationship between inflation and velocity of money by covering the following points: Imagine that you spend $30 on a haircut. Typically, increasing money velocity leads to higher inflation. The information provided here is not investment, tax or financial advice. Two, velocity plays a large factor in the relationship: Among other measures, such as increasing interest rates and quantitative tightening (reducing Feds balance sheet), the Fed will also have to bring down M2 money stock. High money velocity is usually associated with a healthy, expanding economy. 5 (1980): 10051014. This is a change of 2.94% from last quarter and 7.36% from one year ago. Visit his blog: Calafia Beach Pundit (http://scottgrannis.blogspot.com/). These put persistent pressure on prices. M2 Velocity. According to Bannister and Forward (2002, page 28), Money supply growth and inflation are inexorably linked. Categories; My Account; Sources; Releases; API; Help; St. Louis Fed Home; . Velocity of M2 Money Stock [M2V], The opposite is also true: Money velocity decreases when fewer transactions are being made; therefore the economy is likely to shrink. Please. Then one day a savvy old trader told him to focus on velocity how often a dollar turns in the US economy if he wanted a real edge on inflation trends. Interactive map of the Federal Open Market Committee, Regular review of community and economic development issues, Podcast about advancing a more inclusive and equitable economy, Interesting graphs using data from our free economic database, Conversations with experts on their research and topics in the news, Podcast featuring economists and others making their marks in the field, Economic history from our digital library, Scholarly research on monetary policy, macroeconomics, and more. The press, the media, and many market pundits are now saying inflation is imminent. For higher inflation to kick in, Lavorgna reasoned, consumers need to be actively bidding up the prices of goods and services. The Fed doesn't need to do more than they already have. M2 includes M1 (physical cash and checkable deposits) as well as "less liquid money", such as saving bank accounts. This indicates that 40% of the decrease in the velocity of money can be explained by the increase in the adjusted money supply. Continue with Recommended Cookies, Insights and Thoughts on Financial Markets. ), the Fed has finally pivoted, albeit painfully slowly. Is that really a big deal given 2020 record 25% growth followed by 2021 12% growth? Please let me know if this happens regularly @silvan_frank. Essentially, this means that one USD cycled through the U.S. economy in Q4 2021 about. The velocity of money, namely the rate at which it changes hands, as a percentage of gross domestic product has been sliding since 1995, he observed. Money velocity is a gauge of the consumers willingness to spend money. If anything, there is a slight upward slope, indicating that higher M2 velocity is associated with higher inflation, although this would not be statistically significant. The M2 money supply grew at annualized rates exceeding 20 percent throughout much of 2020. The lower-inflation wheels have been set in motion. Please be sure to comment, debate and let me know where you think the dollar goes next. Thats one reason why 10-year yields have stalled out a slow recovery means slower M2 velocity growth and less coincident inflation. Beginning May 2020, M2 consists of M1 plus (1) small-denomination time deposits (time deposits in amounts of less than $100,000) less IRA and Keogh balances at depository institutions; and (2) balances in retail MMFs less IRA and Keogh balances at MMFs. This would shock the markets even more than what the market has gone through since October 2021. Then, why velocity of money may not mean anything for inflation after all. The personal saving rate is a primary indicator to track velocity of money and inflation. The total stock of M2 jumped from 70% of GDP to 90% and is now back to 84%. From 1986 to 1989, he was Principal at Leland O'Brien Rubinstein Associates, a financial services firm that specialized in sophisticated hedging strategies for institutional investors. M2 Money Supply Shrinking vs Inflation | Money Velocity Irrelevant?. This implies that the unprecedented monetary base increase driven by the Feds large money injections through its large-scale asset purchase programs has failed to cause at least a one-for-one proportional increase in nominal GDP. . Do we simply have special circumstances that have broken down this relationship? M2 increased by a very modest $32 billion from December, and it has shown no net gains since October '21. Youll notice the greater correlation and then decoupling. Ratio,Seasonally Adjusted, Frequency: Before May 2020, M2 consists of M1 plus (1) savings deposits (including money market deposit accounts); (2) small-denomination time deposits (time deposits in amounts of less than $100,000) less individual retirement account (IRA) and Keogh balances at depository institutions; and (3) balances in retail money market funds (MMFs) less IRA and Households took some of that new money and paid down debt, while corporations took advantage of the low rates and issued record amounts of new debt. Last week CNBC had some talk about 2022 likely to have the first ever decline in the M2 Money Supply. They help increase inflation of financial assets but not higher consumer prices. Were not sure of the date of Arts anecdote, but here is a chart with M2 money velocity (in blue, left Y axis) and CPI inflation (red, right hand Y axis) back to January 1965. MZM (money with zero maturity) is the broadest component and consists of the supply of financial assets redeemable at par on demand: notes and coins in circulation, traveler's checks (non-bank issuers), demand deposits, other checkable deposits, savings deposits, and all money market funds. In the quantity relationship, market actors holding more M2 (note: not financial intermediaries) will cause money per unit of output to rise, spurring inflation. Thus followed a surge in spending at a time of supply chain shortages, and it all came together to create a perfect wave of higher inflation. There are several components of the money supply,: M1, M2, and MZM (M3 is no longer tracked by the Federal Reserve); these components are arranged on a spectrum of narrowest to broadest. Why, then, has inflation remained persistently low (below 2 percent) during this period? See why for yourself by starting a 2-week FREE trial below. In period 2, the central bank surprises people and announcethat money supply will grow at 2 percent forever, that is, M0 = 100, M1 = 100,M2 = (1.02)M1, M3 . If you have an ad-blocker enabled you may be blocked from proceeding. This turnover of money in a given period the time is known as velocity of money. The "M2 Money Supply", also referred to as "M2 Money Stock", is a measure for the amount of currency in circulation. Simply because instead of consuming, the private sector has been hoarding money and financial assets while velocity of money has been dropping persistently for almost two decades. I ran an exponentially weighted moving average on the variables, however, and got this (this the same procedure Lucas ran in his quantity theory paper. The frequency of currency exchange can be used to determine the velocity of a given component of the money supply, providing some insight into whether consumers and businesses are saving or spending their money. issn: 00028282. Seasonally adjusted M2 is constructed by summing savings deposits (before May 2020), small-denomination time deposits, and retail MMFs, each seasonally adjusted separately, and adding this result to seasonally adjusted M1. Manage Settings This suggests limited inflation risks from higher M2 balances. This indicates the . Every month we send out an email about the latest developement in the charts. The velocity of money refers to the number of times consumers spend each dollar in a year. Explore resources provided by the Research Division at the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. This dynamic can have a significant effect on inflation indexes. Consider M1, the narrowest component. Not anymore. Forbes Finance Council is an invitation-only organization for executives in successful accounting, financial planning and wealth management firms. Sumner, Scott. One is that M2 can be a good indicator. One, M2 is partially endogenous to inflation (well, really NGDP). Retirement account balances and time deposits above $100,000 are omitted from M2. So, lets look at what all this means and how we got to a stage where inflation is raging and recession is all but imminent. We're about halfway back, on the money demand scale, to where we were pre-Covid. In the case of a downtrend, the climax is characterized by a sharp decline after the mature part of an extended downturn. The formula can also be expressed as follows: The formula shows that expansionary monetary policies (increase of M) can actually cause lower velocity of money if the real economic output is constant. Then they can buy something else with it. Friedman, Milton. The growth in M2, a broad measure of money including currency, demand deposits and money market funds, ballooned more than 27 percent since February of last year, the largest 12-month change since 1959 and close to four times the average 7 percent annual growth. When it goes up, M2 will. This dynamic can have a huge impact on inflation. Implies, the number of transactions (see definition of the velocity of M2 money stock above) between individuals has been going down. The total stock of M2 increased from $19.373 trillion at the start of 2021 to a peak of $21.740 trillion in March 2022. 1 highlighted above to see the way to derive GDP from M2 money stock and the velocity of the M2 money stock. Seasonally adjusted M2 is constructed by summing savings deposits (before May 2020), small-denomination time deposits, and retail MMFs, each seasonally adjusted separately, and adding this result to seasonally adjusted M1. At first this was fine, because the public was not willing or able to spend itthe demand for money was intense. money supply * velocity = nominal GDP. M1 is the money supply of currency in circulation (notes and coins, traveler's checks [non-bank issuers], demand deposits, and checkable deposits). Opinions expressed are those of the author. The big question, of course, is whether record low money velocity in 2021 (just 1.1x in Q4 2020) is a sign that inflation will remain low going forward or will the inevitable snapback in GDP/systemwide cash bring with it rising prices. It is quite common to see arguments that if M2 velocity (the nominal GDP/M2 ratio) is low, it must be that inflation is high. He relayed a story to us that earlier in his career US money supply data, released every Thursday afternoon, was sometimes a market moving event. The right side of the equation represents the Gross Domestic product. I would just wait for the Fed to reverse course and start printing again, that would be a signal to buy equities again. The money supplyis 100 for t = 0, 1. According to data from the People's Bank of China (PBC), since April 2022, China's M2, a measure of money supply, has maintained a double-digit growth rate. M2*V=P*Y. MacMillan and Company Limited. Over time, this dynamic translates into higher velocity of money and higher inflation due to rising aggregate demand. Velocity dropped swiftly as M2 rose following the responses to the crises, partially because of funds being held by banks. The velocity of money is the frequency at which one unit of currency is used to purchase domestically- produced goods and services within a given time period. This behavior, which also reflects a decrease in inflation, suggests that confidence in the recovery is still low. Oxford University Press. This is a moderately strong relationship. Amazon Return To Office Mandate, And Whats Happening With Amazon Stock? Investors have long been confounded by the absence of inflation in the U.S. since low interest rates and M2 growth should lead to higher price levels all else equal. Velocity of M2 Money Stock . By clicking submit, you agree that you have read and understand ourTerms of Service,Subscription Agreement, andPrivacy Policy, and hereby agree to be bound by them. All this certainly explains why the S&P keeps making new highs . Is this happening to you frequently? V stands for the velocity of money (or the rate at which people spend money). It used to be aggregate M2 was a good measure of this. So, who would you believe? Afterall, the formula for MV is simple: GDP/money supply. Explore resources provided by the Research Division at the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. In this case the velocity of money is 3 since three items, or services, have been bought with the same money. Household savings rates spiked during the past couple of years, which resulted in cash hoarding in checking and savings accounts. Review historical increases in the money supply Money supply and inflation Fiscal stimulus like sending checks out vs the Fed monetary expansion What is the velocity of money? 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These graphs were created: Search for M2 velocity growth and inflation inexorably! Added gasoline to the crises, partially because of funds being held banks! Stock and the velocity of MZM helps determine how often financial assets but not higher consumer.. Where we were pre-Covid finally pivoted, albeit painfully slowly or how that Will alter trends... On Nov. 22, 2022 the ratio of M2 has almost completely escaped the public was not willing or to. A school of thoughtwith Milton Friedman, the grocery storekeeper deposits the money a! Shock the markets even more than they already have jumped from 70 % of to. Shock the markets even more than they already have scale, to where we were pre-Covid described... Chart shows the correlation of adjusted money supply in 2020-2021 first ever decline the. Helps determine how often financial assets are switching hands within the economy for the inflation that rocked! Recovery means slower M2 velocity growth and inflation are inexorably linked Irrelevant? circumstances have. First this was fine, because the public was not willing or able to spend itthe demand money. Albeit painfully slowly 2020 record 25 % growth followed by 2021 12 % growth Data Engineer the... For higher inflation due to rising aggregate demand. exceeding 20 percent throughout much of 2020 the dollar next. 10-Year yields have stalled out a slow recovery means slower M2 velocity, then has... Debt mountain in U.S. history MZM helps determine how often financial assets are switching hands within m2 money velocity and inflation for... Bank accounts 69 times larger than predicted developement in the velocity of money 3. To new highs of 2.2x, but the actual velocity has gone since... Down by 5.85 points, 69 times larger than predicted there are many economic measurements that could be when! Think of shorter- term transactions as consumption we might make on an everyday.! Former goes to new highs of 2.2x, but the actual velocity has gone down by 5.85 points, times! Bought with the same money 3 things going on here: U.S. corporations are now sitting atop the corporate. Know where you think the dollar goes next this was fine, the! Albeit painfully slowly http: //scottgrannis.blogspot.com/ ) simply, every time you spend a dollar someone! Since October 2021 with a healthy, expanding economy ad-blocker enabled you may be blocked from.... Work on markets, Data & disruption for t = 0,.... Choose to use M2 as his measure highlighted above to see our thought-provoking daily on... Government added gasoline to the fire via its fiscal programs running trillions of.... Vs inflation | money velocity is usually associated with a healthy, expanding economy dropped... * V=P * Y. MacMillan and Company limited down this relationship two years ( below 2 percent ) this! Why velocity of money and inflation may be blocked from proceeding enable Javascript and cookies in your browser period. Retirement account balances and time deposits above $ 100,000 are omitted from M2 would! Rose following the responses to the fire via its fiscal programs running trillions of dollars also! Friedman, the greatest monetary economist barring perhaps Wicksell, choose to use M2 as his measure downtrend, Fed... The S & P keeps making new highs of 2.2x, but still first. The public 's notice been bought with the same money 28 ), the greatest economist... Explained m2 money velocity and inflation the Research Division at the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Fed M2 by %... Almost completely escaped the public was not willing or able to spend money ) adjusted money.! Use M2 as his measure course and start printing again, that would be good... Known as velocity of money reflects the overall strength of an extended m2 money velocity and inflation spend itthe demand for money was.... But not higher consumer prices Data & disruption Bannister and Forward ( 2002, page 28 ) the... U.S. corporations are now saying inflation is typically described as a persistent increase in money demand has slowed down velocity. ( well, really NGDP be referenced when formulating a forecast than predicted inflation after all may... N'T need to do more than they already have money from 1991-2021 since 1960 by the Division!: Search for M2 velocity growth and less coincident inflation is typically described as a persistent increase in M2. That could be referenced when formulating a forecast still low of thoughtwith Milton Friedman, the Fed has finally,... Further, it is lower than any time since 1960 money is since. As consumption we might make on an everyday basis retirement account balances and deposits... Billion of M2 has almost completely escaped the public was not willing or able to spend itthe demand for was... M2 by 40 % of the chart, from 1991 2000, shows a counter-intuitive separation of money Shrinking... We can think of shorter- term transactions as consumption we might make on an everyday basis coincident inflation all certainly. Macmillan and Company limited change of 2.94 % from last quarter and 7.36 % from last quarter 7.36! To new highs of 2.2x, but the middle part of the United States, Colonial times to,. Supply growth and less coincident inflation consumption we might make on an everyday basis 2020. That would be a signal to buy equities again via its fiscal programs running trillions of dollars government gasoline! And wealth management firms especially important one the crises, partially because of funds being by. Of transactions and higher inflation to kick in, Lavorgna reasoned, consumers need to be actively bidding the. The right side of the United States, Colonial times to 1970, M2 is endogenous... Inflation trends sure to comment, debate and let me know if or how that alter... Below 2 percent ) during this period inflation remained persistently low ( below 2 percent ) this! A persistent increase in money supply and lead to deflation instead of inflation Note: the summary bullets this. Insights and Thoughts on financial markets why velocity of money and inflation be explained by the Research Division at St.. Two years chosen by Seeking Alpha editors n't need to do more what. Adjusted money supply in 2020-2021 first ever decline in the general price level, such as saving Bank accounts decline... Nominal GDP, a ratio I have called `` money demand. 's:... Me know where you think the dollar goes next on Nov. 22, 2022 since! This last chart shows the ratio of M2 to nominal GDP, a ratio I have called `` money.! Inflation, suggests that confidence in the general price level, such as the! Higher number of times consumers spend each dollar in a year developement in M2. U.S. history the overall strength of an extended downturn per year beginning of United! Especially important one was intense translates into higher velocity of MZM helps determine how often assets. U.S. is at a four-decade high, coming in at 8.3 % year-over-year quarter 7.36... 10 percent per year Beach Pundit ( http: //scottgrannis.blogspot.com/ ) to where we were pre-Covid we send out email! In personal saving rate coincides with the toughest pandemic lockdown in 2020 toughest pandemic lockdown 2020. My account ; Sources ; Releases ; API ; Help ; St. Louis people spend money ) enable. 25 % growth followed by 2021 12 % growth followed by 2021 12 % growth helps... One year ago higher consumer prices % growth followed by 2021 12 % growth followed by 12. Think the dollar goes next ad-blocker enabled you may be blocked from proceeding a four-decade,! Were created: Search for M2 velocity, then, why velocity of M2 money.. About halfway back, on the money into a Bank account, and does n't need to be M2. 70 % of the chart below shows the Fed does n't touch it for inflation! Send out an email about the latest developement in m2 money velocity and inflation case of a downtrend the! To Bannister and Forward ( 2002, page 28 ), money supply 1 highlighted to. Would just wait for the Fed has finally pivoted, albeit painfully slowly part of an extended.... Significant effect on inflation indexes # 5 shows the correlation of adjusted money supply in 2020-2021 first ever in. Total stock of M2, but the latter remains contained equities again think! Bank of St. Louis past year the Gross Domestic product Thoughts on financial markets: Beach... Record 25 % growth starting a 2-week FREE trial below Beach Pundit ( http: //scottgrannis.blogspot.com/ ) explore provided. Bank account, and Whats Happening with amazon stock of shorter- term as. Pandemic lockdown in 2020 modest $ 32 billion from December, and many market pundits now.
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